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Models for evaluation solution alternatives & Trouble shooting

Theory-based approaches to evaluation use an explicit theory of change to draw conclusions about whether and how an intervention contributed to observed results. Theory-based approaches are a “logic of enquiry,” which complement and can be used in combination with most of the evaluation designs and data collection techniques outlined in Program evaluation methods.

Theory based evaluation is an approach to evaluation and not a specific method or technique. It is a way of structuring and undertaking analysis in an evaluation.

Theory of change 

is a description of why a particular way of working will be effective, showing how change happens in the short, medium, and long term to achieve the intended impact. It can be represented in a visual diagram, as a narrative, or both.

A theory of change can be developed at the beginning of a piece of work (to help with strategic planning), or to describe an existing piece of work (so you can evaluate it). It is particularly helpful if you are planning or evaluating a complex, initiative but can also be used for more straightforward projects.

It is helpful to involve a variety of stakeholders when you develop a theory of change – you could include staff, trustees, beneficiaries, partners, and funders. The development process, and the thinking involved, is often as important as the diagram or narrative you produce.

A theory of change should be:

• credible: based on previous experience and insight from your different stakeholders or relevant research where appropriate

• achievable: you have the necessary resources to carry out the intervention

• supported: your stakeholders will be involved in defining and agreeing your theory of change, which builds support for it

• testable: a complete but not over-complicated description of your work and its outcomes, with prioritised outcomes for measurement and indicators to collect data against them.